閱讀本篇之前，也許會想先看：［2020 城市與房市展望系列 III］
挑戰時代雜誌封面故事主角
文 / 李祖流
譯 / I-hsuan Chen
｜導言
一百年來，全球人口高速與持續城市化，讓城市在許多面向上，逐步取代國家，成為世界競爭的主角。
主要結果之一，就是衍生出世界一級城市網：紐倫港 Nylonkong［紐約、倫敦、香港三座城市的合併稱謂］的全球金融城市架構。
在 2008 年時代雜誌就以紐倫港 Nylonkong 為封面故事，提出紐約、倫敦、香港為關係密切的世界一級城市，而且是屬於21世紀的世界級城市，讓這三座大城的聲勢達到最巔峰。
也許是歷史詛咒，物極必反的定律再次出現，同年出現金融海嘯，淹沒時代雜誌以紐倫港Nylonkong為封面故事的音量。
｜Preamble
Over a century, accelerating and constantly global urbanization makes cities, instead of countries, the world competition protagonists.
The end result is a global first-tier city network, Nylonkong, an abbreviation of New York, London, and Hong Kong, and is also a global financial center.
The cover story of TIME in 2008 indicated the Nylonkong was the most connected first-tier city of the 21st century. The story made these three cities up to their highest fame.
Extremes meet. The 2008 Financial Crisis occurred and the noticeability of Nylonkong was submerged.
｜港島失序三部曲
［危城不入、亂邦不居］是華人世界千古不移的觀點。
2019 年下半年港島的失序，從城市發展角度來觀察，外界看重的是港島能否快速維持穩定，與保障各種資金的自由進出，以繼續作為國際資金安心停泊的基地。
然而 2019 年第四季關於港島富豪與外資默默轉移到星島等地的訊息甚囂塵上，不少都是真實發生的案例。
對照 1997 年英國交還港島回歸北京前後，港島每年向外移民十數萬，流出資金無數的前車之鑑，不難想像2019年港島失序後，必然再度引發大規模移民與資金外流潮。
除了透過港島金融市場網絡衝擊全球，房價位居全球數一數二地位的港島房市走向，也會影響港島移民與外流資金的力度。
畢竟，港島很多富裕之家的資產都以地產形式存在．港島房市的價量如果過快下滑，變現能力不足的現實，將限制很多家庭實現移民願景的能力。
短線上，2020年港島房市價量變化，將是判斷港島家庭外移與本地資金外流的一項參考指標。
但是對國際資金與外籍企業來說，港島 2019 年下半年的失序，已經改變港島原本適合作為國際資金停泊城市的必要條件。
港島失序如果不能快速回到正軌，加上大國以港島為角力的戰場，讓港島已失去吸引國際資金停泊的特質，從 2019 年開始重演 97 包含企業 人才 資金出走趨勢已成定局．這次的規模可能超過 97 回歸前後，衝擊時間也將超過 97 回歸。
港島持續失血的下場，就是世界城市地位不保，甚至淪入失能困境。
｜ Trilogy of Hong Kong Crisis
One will not enter a tottering state, nor dwell in a disorganized one. This is an observation that never changes in the Chinese culture.
Looking into the second half of the Hong Kong crisis in 2019 from the city development perspective, the world would consider Hong Kong as a safe money parking base only if it could contain this crisis soon and assure all funds could be in and out freely.
A great clamor has arisen around the question of the rich and foreign capitals have being transferring their funds to Singapore in the fourth quarter in 2019 and some cases have proven to be true.
In comparison with hundreds of thousands of emigrations and capital outflow yearly after the Hong Kong reunification in 1997, the scale of emigrations and capital outflow for the Hong Kong crisis in 2019 will be even greater.
Other than its status in the global financial market, the extravagant housing market in Hong Kong will also affect the intensity of the emigrations and capital outflow.
After all many families of wealth in Hong Kong retain their assets in forms of estates. Therefore, rapid fall of housing price in Hong Kong will restrict their ability to fulfill emigration due to insufficient ability to liquidizing their assets.
In short term, the volume and price changes of the housing market in Hong Kong in 2020 will be an indicator of the emigrations and capital outflow.
As for international funds and foreign companies, the Hong Kong crisis in 2019 has changed the necessary condition for Hong Kong to be their international money parking city.
If Hong Kong cannot be back on track soon and along with other countries wrestling around Hong Kong, it has made this city loses its attribute of being a parking port for international funds. This may result in the scale and duration of exporting talents and companies even greater than it is back in 1997.
The continuous Hong Kong crisis makes it loses its status of the city of world and can even incapacitate Hong Kong.
｜新日不落城市聯網 獎落何方
2019 年與 2020 年交接之際，以紐倫港為主的世界一級金融城市與經濟飛地聯網的崩解正在發生，伴生的，就是嶄新的全球城市發展機會。
這是包括台北都會區與其它具備潛在競爭條件的各大都會區，朝世界一級城市發展，全面提升城市國際影響力的重大契機。
對於北台灣一千萬人口都會區來說，面對東京、星島、長三角、珠三角、東協幾座千萬人口城市，想要競逐港島可能釋放出來的資源，一場競爭將無從迴避。
北台灣的城市發展規劃能否盡快反應過來，調整並提出足以吸引從港島出走的各種資源及人才的方案，是參與這場已經自動開啟的世紀級競賽的重要關鍵。
早年曾經出現過的境外金融中心構想，非常適合這次港島資金與人才的出走潮。
由於台灣本身金融相關限制較嚴，透過台灣島內特別成立的境外金融中心特區，給港島原本就高度國際化與最具金融競爭力的企業、資金、人才一個落腳的再出發之地，甚至可以擴大規劃為一座新的金融城市，以吸納數萬港島具備金融與專業背景的家庭為前提，打造一座初始人口在20萬至30萬人的新城市或者國際型的大規模新市鎮，藉以吸納港島外移資源。
從新城市的尺度觀察，桃園航空城就非常合適考慮進行長期規劃，只要全面增加捷運軌道建設，配合航空城的特色，很適合作為這座境外金融中心與新城市所在。
短線上，可以強化精華區會區相關吸引力與產業競爭力為主。先以台北都會區核心區的金融產業聚落為基礎，配合特殊金融機構專案來台投資方案以及開放專業移民條件等等方式吸引，一樣能爭取港島出走資源目光。
說穿了，台灣應該學習德國與法國，直接開條件挖角．因為這種歷史轉折機會，錯過就成為永恆遺憾。一旦這個理想能夠落實，台灣在原本的科技產業之外，國際金融實力將成為另一個帶動台灣繁榮的動力來源，台北都會區的發展與國際影響力也將迎來全新的一頁。
｜ The New city which suns would never set will be?
On the handover of 2019 2020, the collapsing of this world first-class financial city and this economy enclave networking effect gives cities around the world a brand-new chance to develop.
This is a great opportunity for a city to become a world first-class city and to increase its international influence which may include Taipei metro area and all the others metro areas with potential competitive criterion.
As for the metro area with 10 million population in the North of Taiwan, the competition for getting the resources which is released from Hong Kong is inevitable among the 10 million population city of Tokyo, Singapore, Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, and ASEAN
Could the planner of the city development in the North of Taiwan react fast enough to attract all the resources and talents is the hypercritical point weather or not the city can join this competition of the century.
The offshore banking center is perfect idea for this exodus of funds and talents due to the Hong Kong crisis.
Taiwan is a place with strict restrictions when it comes to financial industry. This might just give the highly internationalized and competitive organizations, funds, and talents a place to restart through establishing the specific offshore financial center area within Taiwan. To attract tens of thousands of families with financial and professional background from Hong Kong for the premise, the planners can even expend it as a new financial city with 200 to 300 thousand of people or as a large scale international new city.
From new city development perfective, Taoyuan air city is perfect city to take into consideration in the long term. It is a great new city to be the offshore banking center with it air city feature and further increasing MRT network development.
In the short term, it can focus on enhancing the attraction and industrial competitiveness in the metro areas. The center of Taipei metro areas could first be the base of the financial industry then cope with specific financial organization investment projects, open immigration for professionals, etc., I believe Taipei will attract the exported resource from Hong Kong.
If this idea of be the port of the international funds could put into practice, Taiwan would gain another force to sustain its economy other than depend only on the technology industry. This will also bring a brand-new page of development and international inference for the Taipei metro area.
｜以城謀國 一帶一路可轉城市聯網再出發
對於北京來說，港島 2019 年失序的後續發展，將影響大國角力的方向。看似危機，實藏轉機。
1997 年時的港島，絕對是大中華面對世界的經濟與金融門戶。如今則不具備這樣的條件，從最新的珠江三角洲城市發展藍圖，就能嗅出這股味道。
以港島作為角力籌碼，並不是北京不能承受的代價。
幾年來一帶一路策略的推動出現了不少流弊，其中之一就是在拓展海外城市的經營上不夠細膩，少了以城謀國與創造城市聯網的深度規劃。如今配合紐倫港架構的可能崩解，橫跨歐亞非的一帶一路理想，仍然可為。
｜Using city network to restart of the Belt and Road
The follow-up development of the Hong Kong crisis in 2019 may seem to be a crisis, however, it could actually be an opportunity for Beijing.
Hong Kong in 1997 was definitely the economy and financial portal for Chinese to the world. However, it no longer holds its position and it can be identified from the latest city development blue print of Pearl River Delta.
Making Hong Kong the chip for bargain is not the price Beijing could not bear.
Today the Belt and Road, this idea of across Europe-Asia-Africa might still be doable due to the possibility of disintegrating of Nylonkong.
