文 / 李祖流
譯 / I-hsuan Chen
｜導言
一百年來，全球人口高速與持續城市化，讓城市在許多面向上，逐步取代國家，成為世界競爭的主角。
主要結果之一，就是衍生出世界一級城市網：紐倫港Nylonkong (紐約、倫敦、香港三座城市的合併稱謂) 的全球金融城市架構。
在 2008 年時代雜誌就以紐倫港 Nylonkong 為封面故事，提出紐約、倫敦、香港為關係密切的世界一級城市，而且是屬於21世紀的世界級城市，讓這三座大城的聲勢達到最巔峰。
也許是歷史詛咒，物極必反的定律再次出現，同年出現金融海嘯，淹沒時代雜誌以紐倫港 Nylonkong 為封面故事的音量。
整整十一年過去，如今的紐倫港架構，在英國脫歐與港島失序之後，預期將加速崩壞，從 2020 年起，成為包括北台灣一千萬人口都會區、上海、東京、東協幾座千萬人口都會區在內，全球重要城市新一輪爭奪資源，與登上世界一級城市排名的大好契機。
｜Preamble
Over a century, accelerating and constantly global urbanization makes cities, instead of countries, the world competition protagonists.
The end result is a global first-tier city network, Nylonkong, an abbreviation of New York, London, and Hong Kong, and is also a global financial center.
The cover story of TIME in 2008 indicated the Nylonkong was the most connected first-tier city of the 21st century. The story made these three cities up to their highest fame.
Extremes meet. The 2008 Financial Crisis occurred and the noticeability of Nylonkong was submerged.
11 year has passed, rapid collapse of Nylonkong is expected after Brexit and the Hong Knog crisis. Starting 2020, it is a great opportunity for the metropolitan area of 10 million of North Taiwan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and a couple of 10 million cities of ASEAN to be in the rank of global first-tier city.
｜紐倫港的跨時區經濟飛地聯網效應
實際上，紐倫港這個世界一級城市架構的成立，並不是單一城市運作的結果。
紐倫港跨越歐美亞三大洲，在不同時區裡互補，在操控全球金融的功能上越來越重疊，形成一條橫越全球的經濟飛地項鍊。
這條經濟飛地項鍊的形成過程裡，東京曾經是重要熱點．但大中華經濟圈崛起之後，在文化與制度上，顯然東京不如港島，最後在一級城市聯網架構中，讓位給港島。同時，紐倫港三座城市的發展步調越來越接近，與周邊其他城市差異越來越大。
更精確的說，紐倫港三座城市裡的某些城區，文化與經濟活動同步性更高，與同一座城市其它城區民眾的生活差異越來越明顯。
這些城市裡最具經濟飛地效應的城區，才是紐倫港世界一級城市網絡的真正核心。未來出現的新世界級城市，具備這種屬性的區段，必然是城市裡最精華與全球影響力最大的區域。
至於［飛地］這個名詞，原本指的是［境內的境外］或者［境外的境內］這兩種情況．套用在紐倫港跨越時區形成的全球經濟飛地聯網上，同時飛越時間與空間框架，再適合也不過。
｜Enclave economy effects of Nylonkong
The fact is that the establishment of the world first-tier city network, Nylonkong, is not the make of one single city.
Nylonkong, a city across Euro-North America-Asia continents, is complement one another in different time zones and creates a global economy enclave-chain.
Tokyo once arouses general interest in the making of this global economy enclave-chain. After the rise of Greater China Economic Circle, Tokyo abdicate its position in the global first-tier city to Hong Kong due to its inferior to culture and financial system.
In the meantime, the development of this tri-city Nylonkong grows closer which makes it grows apart from cities surround them. To be more precise, some areas in the tri-city of Nylonknog have higher synchronicities in culture and economy than those areas within its own city.
The areas with highest enclave effects are the core of the world first-tier city network, Nylonkong. The new world-class city in the future must be the area with such property and will become the most influential and essential area in the city.
An enclave could be exclave or enclave. Enclave is perfectly description of Nylonkong when it comes to its global economy position of across time zones and difference spaces.
｜美元的未來 紐約的挑戰
因為跨城市的經濟飛地聯網效應，港島、倫敦若受到不同因素衝擊，未來幾年間確實明顯衰退之後，影響所及，紐約這座世界金融城市的霸主，面對全世界的音量分貝必然下滑。
不過，真正能直接威脅紐約金融霸權存續的關鍵，在美元的國際地位是否動搖。
曾有人諷刺地說，美國主要出口商品其實是美元，主要出口港就在紐約．這個描述，很接近事實。
如今，包括歐盟、俄羅斯、中國都在努力創造非美元的國際貿易與清算體系，這才是能直接挑戰紐約作為世紀金錢霸權的重大威脅，而這些威脅能量正在與日俱增。
｜The future of US dollar. The challenge of New York
Due to the distinct impacts of Hong Kong and London, the recession of tri-city economy effect of Nylonkong in the near future is expected and the influential status of the world financial leading city, New York, is expecting to fall off.
However, the key to rock the financial supremacy of the city of New York, or not, will be the global position of the US dollar.
It was told sarcastically that the chief export of the United States of America is Dollars and the main port of export is New York. This description fits the truth perfectly.
Now, countries, which include European Union, Russia, and China, put efforts on creating non-US dollar international trades and liquidations in order to ease the growing currency threat of the US dollar from New York.
｜英脫歐與蘇格蘭獨立 倫敦迎向日落
在金融海嘯之後的紐倫港衰退過程裡，原本最可能劇本是英國脫歐引發連鎖反應，造成倫敦地位最先動搖，只是被2019年港島失序衝擊給搶先了一步。
英國脫歐迄今已造成倫敦金融城大量裁員。國際媒體報導了倫敦金融城過去備受通勤族喜愛的高價單車，出現乏人問津丟棄成堆的現象。
在英倫海峽的對岸，法國財政部長勒麥爾（Bruno Le Maire）還公開表示，巴黎就可以取代倫敦，擔任歐洲的金融中心腳色。
事實上，德國與法國都在全力挖取倫敦的金融業務與相關人才，提供各種優惠吸引這些帶給倫敦與英國大量利益與世界影響力的企業及人才往歐陸城市移動。
這是赤裸裸的國家角力，更是五十年來沒出現過的終極城市格鬥賽．失敗的一方，代價將無比沉重。
英國脫歐的後續連鎖反應，包括了大英國協內的蘇格蘭基於本身貿易出口利益，將透過公投脫英，然後申請入歐。
換成十年前，誰能想像失去蘇格蘭之後，蘇格蘭風笛手的圖案，將與英國永遠分離。
這樣的英國，還是英國嗎？
對於不清楚蘇格蘭民眾爭取脫英歷程的讀者，可以加碼對照加泰隆尼亞爭取脫離西班牙的例子，都是歐洲近年爭取獨立的重大案例，背後牽扯歷史上舊王國之間的協議與恩怨，有機會另外專文分析，在此不深入探討。
這裡要強調，蘇格蘭對由英格蘭主導的大英國協長期治理結果非常不滿，各方確信一旦英國完成脫歐，蘇格蘭為了本身的經濟命脈必然透過公投爭取脫離英國，然後申請進入歐盟，這幾乎是不可逆的過程。
失去蘇格蘭的英國，脫離歐盟舞台的英國，無疑都會導致倫敦這座城市的影響力直線下滑。
曾經的日不落帝國首都，也許將迎來最終的日落。
｜Brexit and Scottish Independence Referendum London head for the sunset
The original set script in the recession of Nylonkong after the Financial Crisis was trembling status of London due to the train reaction of Brexit. However, the impact of the Hong Kong crisis in 2019 gets a head start.
Brexit contributes to massive layoffs in London to date. Once the commuters in the city of London be loved high-end bicycles are now going begging.
Across the English Channel, Bruno Le Maire, the head of the Ministry of Finance in France, indicates in public that Paris could substitute London as the financial center of Europe.
In fact, German and France are doing their utmost to cut London’s corner on its financial talents. These countries offer all kinds of favorable terms to allure these talents and corporations which give London and United Kingdom great profits and their global influential status to move to continental cities.
This blond wrestling battle between countries is an ultimate city-fight which never been seen for 50 years and the one who loses will pay heavily.The domino effect of the Brexit includes Scotland is independent of United Kingdom and joins the European Union to maximize its export interest.
Who could of imagining the picture of the Unite Kingdom without the Scotland bagpiper?
Is it still the United Kingdom?
For those of you who are not familiar with the history of Scottish independence, you can look into the Catalan independence movement, the significant independence examples in Europe. You may find some agreements and all the old and recent grudges among the old kingdoms throughout the history.
We may discuss this further in another chapter in the future.
Due to the dissatisfaction of the achievement of the United Kingdom, it is believed that Scotland will definitely join the European Union to sustain its economy once the independence Referendum passes.
The United Kingdom without Scotland and Brexit will definitely decrease the influential power of the city of London.
Once the capital of the sun never sets on the British Empire may finally see its sunset.
｜您也許會想再看：［2020 城市與房市展望系列 II ］
金鼠年台灣 - 投資需求歸隊 各方搶拿好牌
